2030’s Seniors : Kin and Step-Kin
نویسنده
چکیده
Demographic computer microsimulation is applied to produce projections of numbers and distributions of close kin for the U.S. elderly of 2030. This paper reports results for the non-black population, with special emphasis on the numbers and possible roles of step-kin. The projections indicate that the elderly of 2030 are likely to be moderately deprived in terms of numbers of close living biological kin compared to 1990. Expanding numbers of step-children and stepgrandchildren compensate the numerical shortages to a large extent but do not reverse them. A survey of the literature on the current strength of kinship ties shows step-kin with much weaker ties of contact, exchange, and support. But there remains the possibility that these roles will alter over the coming decade in view of the numerical importance of step-kin and the probable strains on other sources of connection and support.
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